SILVER
Silver advanced overnight to open at
19.25/19.30. It touched a low of 19.21/19.26 before climbing to a
high of 19.62/19.67 and prior to concluding the session at
19.39/19.44.
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Silver closed higher today at 19.39.
There is a base of support in the high 18’s/low 19’s, where we
have traded on seven occasions since the beginning of December.
There is also a strong downtrend in place on the daily chart, which
currently comes in at 20.04. Silver has traded in a sideways range
since early December, so we would need a breach of support at 18.83
or of resistance at 20.64 to get excited about the metal.
The
gold-silver ratio is trading close
to unchanged at 64.94. It remains in a well-defined uptrend with
support currently at 61.50. Resistance is at the major high of
67.56.
Silver gained after data showed that
manufacturing activity in the U.S. deteriorated to the lowest level
since June.
Caution over emerging markets, U.S.
economy and Fed’s move to taper its stimulus program remain crucial
to the metal’s moves
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained
by 0.66% i.e. 65.84 tonnes to 10095.06 tonnes from 10029.22 tonnes.
Technical Levels
|
S 1 |
S 2 |
R 1 |
R 2 |
| SILVER |
19.10 |
18.81 |
19.66 |
19.92 |
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at
1247.00/1248.00. It touched a low of 1245.25/1246.25 before surging
to a high of 1265.50/1266.50 as the dollar retreated while
equity markets slipped following weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM data that
showed a decline in manufacturing activity, which included a
significant drop in new manufacturing orders, amidst continuing
pressure on emerging markets. The metal then consolidated later in
the afternoon to close the day at 1259.50/1260.50.
Gold closed higher today at 1260. Price
action has been very lackluster, and the past two trading sessions
have traded inside of Thursday’s big down-day. A nice clean break
through the recent high of 1279, which is also a Fibonacci
retracement level (38.2% of the August to December 2013 downtrend),
would improve the outlook considerably and would shift our view out
of neutral. We note the MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell
signal.
Gold rose as prices were supported
after a worse than expected U.S. manufacturing report weighed on the
dollar and global equities.
ISM said its index of national factory
activity fell to its lowest level since May 2013 at 51.3 last month,
from a recently revised 56.5 in December.
U.S. manufacturing activity slowed
sharply in January on the back of the biggest drop in new orders in
33 years.
Technical Levels
|
S 1 |
S 2 |
R 1 |
R 2 |
| GOLD |
1245 |
1230 |
1270 |
1281 |
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
COPPER
On the
Comex division of the New York
Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a
session low of USD3.184 a pound, the weakest since December 4, before
trimming losses to trade at USD3.194 during European morning hours,
down 0.1%.
The March copper contract settled down
0.91% on Friday to end at USD3.197 a pound. Copper futures were
likely to find support at USD3.168 a pound, the low from December 2
and resistance at USD3.230 a pound, the high from January 31.
Copper prices have declined in each of
the past eight sessions leading up to Monday, the longest losing
streak since January 1996.
Data released earlier showed that
China's official non-manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level
since December 2008 in January, falling to 53.4 from 54.6 in
December.
The deterioration in the services
sector adds to declining manufacturing PMIs. Data released over the
weekend showed that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to a
six-month low of 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December.
Last week, private sector data from
HSBC confirmed a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector for
the first time since July.
China is the world’s largest copper
consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Technical Levels
|
S 1 |
S 2 |
R 1 |
R 2 |
| COPPER |
3.1715 |
3.1595 |
3.1990 |
3.2145 |
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
CRUDE
On Monday, the New
York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD96.54 a barrel and a
high of USD96.73 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD96.65 a
barrel.
Nymex oil futures were
likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, the low from Jan. 27,
and resistance at USD98.58 a barrel, Thursday's high.
Oil prices suffered after
the Institute for Supply Management said its widely-watch
manufacturing gauge fell to a seven-month low in January, as new
orders slumped.
The ISM’s manufacturing
purchasing managers’ index came in at 51.3 in January, down from
57.0 in December.
Analysts were expecting the
index to inch down to 56.4 in January.
The report added new order
growth fell at its fastest rate in 33 years, with the new orders
index dropping to 51.2 from 64.4 in December. The employment index
fell from 55.8 in December to 52.3, the weakest since June.
New York-traded crude oil
prices fluctuated between small gains and losses in Asian trading on
Tuesday after U.S. manufacturing gauges missed market expectations
and painted a picture of a still-weak U.S. economy that will demand
less fuel and energy going forward than once anticipated..
Technical Levels
|
S 1 |
S 2 |
R 1 |
R 2 |
| CRUDE
|
95.81 |
95.20 |
97.50 |
95.56 |
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
| TIME
|
DATA |
PRV |
EXP |
IMPACT |
| 8.30P.M
|
Factory Orders m/m |
1.8%
|
-1.9% |
MEDIUM |
| 8.30P.M
|
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism |
45.2 |
46 |
LOW |
Factory Orders m/m
| Source |
Census Bureau(latest release) |
| Measures |
Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with
manufacturers; |
| Usual Effect |
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency |
Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; |
| Next Release |
Mar 6, 2014 |
| FF Notes |
This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders
data released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding
non-durable goods; |
Why Traders
Care |
It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders
signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to
fill the orders; |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
| Source |
TIPP(latest release) |
| Measures |
Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; |
| Usual Effect |
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency |
Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; |
| Next Release |
Mar 4, 2014 |
| FF Notes |
Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism; |
| Derived Via |
Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate
the relative level of economic conditions including six-month
economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in
federal economic policies; |
| Also Called |
IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence; |
