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Showing posts with label NYMEX Commodity Tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NYMEX Commodity Tips. Show all posts

Gold, Silver,Copper, Crude: Comex Technical Outlook

SILVER
Silver advanced overnight to open at 19.25/19.30. It touched a low of 19.21/19.26 before climbing to a high of 19.62/19.67 and prior to concluding the session at 19.39/19.44. Free Trial
Silver closed higher today at 19.39. There is a base of support in the high 18’s/low 19’s, where we have traded on seven occasions since the beginning of December. There is also a strong downtrend in place on the daily chart, which currently comes in at 20.04. Silver has traded in a sideways range since early December, so we would need a breach of support at 18.83 or of resistance at 20.64 to get excited about the metal. 
The gold-silver ratio is trading close to unchanged at 64.94. It remains in a well-defined uptrend with support currently at 61.50. Resistance is at the major high of 67.56.
Silver gained after data showed that manufacturing activity in the U.S. deteriorated to the lowest level since June.
Caution over emerging markets, U.S. economy and Fed’s move to taper its stimulus program remain crucial to the metal’s moves
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.66% i.e. 65.84 tonnes to 10095.06 tonnes from 10029.22 tonnes.
Technical Levels
S 1 S 2 R 1 R 2
SILVER 19.10 18.81 19.66 19.92
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1247.00/1248.00. It touched a low of 1245.25/1246.25 before surging to a high of 1265.50/1266.50 as the dollar retreated while equity markets slipped following weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM data that showed a decline in manufacturing activity, which included a significant drop in new manufacturing orders, amidst continuing pressure on emerging markets. The metal then consolidated later in the afternoon to close the day at 1259.50/1260.50.
Gold closed higher today at 1260. Price action has been very lackluster, and the past two trading sessions have traded inside of Thursday’s big down-day. A nice clean break through the recent high of 1279, which is also a Fibonacci retracement level (38.2% of the August to December 2013 downtrend), would improve the outlook considerably and would shift our view out of neutral. We note the MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell signal.
Gold rose as prices were supported after a worse than expected U.S. manufacturing report weighed on the dollar and global equities.
ISM said its index of national factory activity fell to its lowest level since May 2013 at 51.3 last month, from a recently revised 56.5 in December.
U.S. manufacturing activity slowed sharply in January on the back of the biggest drop in new orders in 33 years.
Technical Levels
S 1 S 2 R 1 R 2
GOLD 1245 1230 1270 1281
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD3.184 a pound, the weakest since December 4, before trimming losses to trade at USD3.194 during European morning hours, down 0.1%.
The March copper contract settled down 0.91% on Friday to end at USD3.197 a pound. Copper futures were likely to find support at USD3.168 a pound, the low from December 2 and resistance at USD3.230 a pound, the high from January 31.
Copper prices have declined in each of the past eight sessions leading up to Monday, the longest losing streak since January 1996.
Data released earlier showed that China's official non-manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level since December 2008 in January, falling to 53.4 from 54.6 in December.
The deterioration in the services sector adds to declining manufacturing PMIs. Data released over the weekend showed that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December.
Last week, private sector data from HSBC confirmed a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector for the first time since July.
China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Technical Levels
S 1 S 2 R 1 R 2
COPPER 3.1715 3.1595 3.1990 3.2145
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE
On Monday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD96.54 a barrel and a high of USD96.73 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD96.65 a barrel.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, the low from Jan. 27, and resistance at USD98.58 a barrel, Thursday's high.
Oil prices suffered after the Institute for Supply Management said its widely-watch manufacturing gauge fell to a seven-month low in January, as new orders slumped.
The ISM’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 51.3 in January, down from 57.0 in December.
Analysts were expecting the index to inch down to 56.4 in January.
The report added new order growth fell at its fastest rate in 33 years, with the new orders index dropping to 51.2 from 64.4 in December. The employment index fell from 55.8 in December to 52.3, the weakest since June.
New York-traded crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses in Asian trading on Tuesday after U.S. manufacturing gauges missed market expectations and painted a picture of a still-weak U.S. economy that will demand less fuel and energy going forward than once anticipated..
Technical Levels
S 1 S 2 R 1 R 2
CRUDE 95.81 95.20 97.50 95.56
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
8.30P.M Factory Orders m/m 1.8% -1.9% MEDIUM
8.30P.M IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 45.2 46 LOW
Factory Orders m/m
Source Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;
Next Release Mar 6, 2014
FF Notes This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding non-durable goods;
Why Traders
Care		 It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
Source TIPP(latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release Mar 4, 2014
FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;

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Posted by Alex Gray

Comex Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1235.00/1236.00. Shortly after open, it touched a low of 1227.25/1228.25 before surging to the day’s high of 1248.50/1249.50 on dollar weakness following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data with non-farm payrolls adding a meagre 74k jobs in December against the 196k forecasted by economists. The metal closed the day at 1247.00/1248.00.
Gold closed higher this week at 1247, the third up-week in a row. While the test of the major low at 1180 was encouraging last week, it is too early to call an end to the strong downtrend that has been in place since the high of 1921 in 2011. 
The 50% retracement of the rally from 2008 to 2011 provides resistance; this is at 1301. There is strong support at the 1180 low. We are inclined to think that this is simply a correction; and that we will retest the 1180 low and achieve the technical target of 1155 (61.8% retracement of the long-term rally). We would be stopped out of this view should gold rally past 1416, the last major high.
Gold rose after disappointing U.S. jobs data stirred speculation Fed will take a gradual approach to tapering its bond-buying stimulus this year.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 74,000 in December, the smallest increase since January 2011, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent
Dollar weakened fueling expectations for the Federal Reserve to trim its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying program at a slower pace than once expected.
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1232 1218 1254 1262
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
SILVER
Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.76/19.81. It briefly touched a low of 19.65/19.70 before reaching a high of 20.24/20.29 on the back of gold prior to concluding the session at 20.21/20.26.
Silver closed unchanged this week at 20.21 and has been trading sideways for the past six weeks. There is resistance from a downtrend that has been in place since August, which currently comes in at 20.85. Resistance from the larger downtrend, in place since the 2011 high of 49.79, comes in at 23.63. The trend remains bearish.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 61.83. Support from the uptrend currently comes in at 60.18. There is resistance at 67.46, the last major high. The trend remains bullish.
Silver rose as investors recalibrated their expectations for Federal Reserve policy after a much weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier that the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, well below expectations for a 196,000 increase.
Fed asset purchases tend to weaken the dollar by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus making prices an attractive hedge.
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.76 19.31 20.46 20.71
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
COPPER
Comex, copper for March delivery jumped 1.29% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.341 a pound. Prices of the industrial metal lost 1.3% on Thursday to end at USD3.299 a pound. Comex copper prices shed 0.26% on the week.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3 percent in December on a month earlier propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases, but arrivals still fell 2.3 percent in 2013 due to lower term bookings of refined metal. China’s copper imports rose 29 percent to 441,291 tons last month from a year earlier, government data showed today. Total imports expanded 8.3 percent, while exports grew 4.3 percent. Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai are at the lowest since November 2012, with LME inventories dropping for a 46th day.
Copper rose as traders bet that an apparent slowdown in U.S. hiring could tweak Fed’s monetary policy and increase the appeal of industrial commodities.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3% in December propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases
Data showed China’s export growth weakened in December–raising concerns about metal demand if economic growth isn’t sustained.
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3051 3.2688 3.3621 3.3828
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
CRUDE
The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.08% during Asian trading on Monday at USD93.02.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.24 a barrel, the low from January 9 and resistance at USD94.18 a barrel, the high from January 8. During the last week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, lost 1.55%, the second consecutive weekly decline.
Crude oil pricecs rose during Asian trading on Monday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data fanned speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale down its bond-buying program at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
Crudeoil settled flat recovering from lows on reports of production problems at a major U.K. oilfield stoked supply concerns.
China’s crude oil imports rose 13 percent in December from a year ago to a record 6.31 million barrels per day as two big refineries reopened.
Crude demand for this year could rebound slightly as new refineries open, though growth may be capped by a lack of momentum in the broader economy.
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 92.00 91.30 93.40 94.08
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

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Posted by Alex Gray

COMEX Report: Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD
Gold edged lower overnight to open at 1227.00/1228.00. Shortly after open, it briefly touched a high of 1228.00/1229.00 before declining quickly to a low of 1218.75/1219.75 as global equities edged higher and the Dollar strengthened following robust employment data from the U.S. that showed a better-than-expected increase in private sector jobs. Choppy trades for the remainder of the session led the metal to close higher at 1225.50/1226.50.
Gold tried lower today but held above our December high pivot of 1218. The close at 1225 keeps us in the bullish up cycle that started off 1882 on December 31. We like the idea of a test above 1252 while 1218 remains firm.
Gold ended with losses weighed down by upbeat U.S. private-sector jobs data
Minutes of Fed’s meeting, showed many members wanted to proceed with caution in trimming the central bank’s $85 billion monthly asset purchases.
SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 1.50 tonnes i.e. -0.19% to 793.12 tonnes from 794.62 tonnes.
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1218 1210 1232 1239
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
 SILVER
Silver dropped overnight to open at 19.61/19.66, which was the high of the day. It then followed gold to a low of 19.30/19.35 before recovering to close at 19.51/19.56.
Silver is weak today closing at 19.51. The rejection of Silver near 20.38 has taken the shine off the metal. Major support is not seen until 18.91. 
The Gold-Silver ratio spiked higher again today with the ratio moving above recent high of 62.87. The topside appears the risk in the ratio with key resistance not seen until 64.10 the December 4 high.
Silver dropped after data showed that U.S. non-farm private employment rose at the strongest pace in two years last month.
US non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 238,000 in December, easily surpassing expectations for an increase of 200,000
Two top Fed officials said they expected the bank to reduce stimulus at a steady pace.
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.32 19.01 19.83 20.12
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.360 a pound during European morning trade, little changed on the day. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.355 a pound and USD3.372 a pound.
The March contract ended Tuesday’s session unchanged at USD3.359 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.330 a pound, the low from January 6 and resistance at USD3.387 a pound, the high from January 3.
Investors were turning their attention to the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting, due for release later Wednesday, for indications on the possible timing of further reductions in the central bank’s stimulus program.
Copper futures swung between small gains and losses in rangebound trade on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious ahead of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and the upcoming U.S. jobs report.
Copper ended with losses weighed down by a strong dollar and concerns about economic recovery in China.
Euro zone unemployment was unchanged at a record high for the eighth month in a row in November, but retail sales made the biggest monthly jump in 12 years.
US ADP employment in December grew more than expected, hitting a 13-month high and lifted market optimism toward US December non-farm employment data.
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3260 3.3095 3.3680 3.3935
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in February traded at USD92.55 a barrel during Asian morning trade, up 0.23%. On Wednesday New York-traded oil futures held range bound between USD92.48 a barrel and USD92.64 a barrel.
The February contract settled down at USD92.61 a barrel on Wednesday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD92.57 a barrel, the low from Dec. 2, and resistance at USD94.58 a barrel, Monday's high.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.68 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 3, beating expectations for a decline of 849,000 barrels. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 357.9 million barrels as of last week.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 6.24 million barrels, significantly higher than expectations for a gain of 2.28 million barrels. 
Crude oil dropped after official data revealed gasoline and distillates stockpiles rose, while falling crude inventories cushioned losses somewhat.
The U.S. EIA said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.68 million barrels
While Libyan officials say production could recover to nearly 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this week. More Updates
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 91.60 90.97 93.52 94.81
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7.00P.M Unemployment Claims 339K 337K STRONG
11.31P.M 30-y Bond Auction 3.9 2.4 LOW
Unemployment Claims
Source Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency CRUDE Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release Jan 16, 2014
FF Notes This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders
Care		 Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
30-y Bond Auction
Source Treasury Direct (latest release)
Measures Highest yield on 10-year bonds the government sold at auction, and the bid-to-cover ratio of the auction;
Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both risk and growth implications;
Frequency Conducted monthly;
Next Release Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes Auction results are reported in an 'X.XX|X.X' format - the first number is the highest interest rate of the bonds sold, and the second number is the bid-to-cover ratio (number of bids made per bid accepted);
Why Traders
Care		 Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence;
Also Called Treasury Auction, Note Auction;

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Posted by Alex Gray

'COMEX' Commodity Technical Outlook

SILVER
Silver edged lower overnight to open at 19.41/19.46. It declined to a low of 18.72/18.77 and then spiked to a high of 19.82/19.87 on thinly traded volumes before concluding the session at 19.36/19.41.
Silver had a rough day trading to fresh 6 month lows toward 18.75 before bouncing to close at 19.39. Silver has fallen 36% YOY and still looks like risk is toward our 2013 low of 18.26. The ability to hold this level will be key moving forward as a break opens the 2010 low of 14.68. 
The gold-silver ratio is closing at 61.93. We would expect the 60.00 to 64.00 range to hold for the near future.
Silver yesterday settled flat at 43876 as major exchanges where closed yesterday on New Year holiday
The Conference Board reported earlier that its index of U.S. consumer confidence improved to 78.1 in December from 72.0 in November
The Fed has rolled out multiple rounds of bond purchase since the 2008 financial crisis.
Technical Levels

 S 1 S 2 R 1 R 2
SILVER 19.32 19.03 20.41 20.99
Commodity Contract  S2 S1 R1 R2
GOLD 
Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1196.50/1197.50. It declined to a low of 1182.00/1183.00 while global equities traded near 6-year highs as investors moved away from safe-haven assets on expectations of a strong economic recovery in 2014 and rising benchmark bond yields combined with rising consumer confidence in the U.S. The metal then rose to a session high of 1214.00/1215.00 on low year-end volumes as the Euro appreciated against the Dollar. Thereafter, it traded within range for the rest of the afternoon to finally close at 1203.00/1204.00.
Gold is closing today largely unchanged from yesterday despite having a large range. The metal took a run at the 2013 lows today but fell $2 short at 1182. The failure trade resulted in a $30 bounce to 1213. It has been a bad year for Gold falling -28% YOY. This is the first down year after 12 consecutive years of gains. From a price perspective, the down side in the metal remains vulnerable with $1,087 the 50% of our 12 year range the next massive support.
Gold settled flat at 28418 as all major exchanges in all regions where closed for the New Year.
Gold tumbled in 2013, with Fed’s plan to step away from ultra-loose monetary policy undermining the investor rationale for holding bullion.
Investors had largely shrugged off industry data revealing that the Chicago purchasing managers’ index fell to a seasonally adjusted 59.1.
Technical Levels

 S1 S 2 R 1 R2
GOLD 1192 1181 1231 1249
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.384 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.05%. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.376 a pound and USD3.391 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.368 a pound, the low from December 26 and resistance at USD3.431 a pound, the high from December 24. The March contract settled 0.07% lower on Monday to end at USD3.382 a pound.
Market players looked ahead to U.S. data on consumer confidence and manufacturing activity in the Chicago region later in the day, to gauge if the U.S. economy will be strong enough to allow the Fed to continue withdrawing support through 2014.
Copper futures were little changed on the final trading day of the year on Tuesday, with volumes expected to remain light as many investors already closed books before the end of the year.
Copper settled flat as trading was light as there was no major news and most investors were celebrating the New Year.
Growth in China’s factories slowed slightly in December as export orders and output weakened, official data showed
Dallas Fed service sector index rose to 12.5 in December, but December Chicago PMI was 59.1, falling more sharply than market expectations.
Technical Levels

 S1 S 2 R 1 R 2
COPPER 3.3726 3.3488 3.4141 3.4318
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil futures for February delivery rose by 0.31% while trading at USD 98.73 a barrel.
It earlier traded at a session high USD 98.77 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD 99.06 and resistance at USD100.75.
Expectations for Libyan oil exports to resume to near normal levels sent prices falling Tuesday due to the added supply they'd bring to the global market.
Libyan oil operations faced glitches recently due to protesters disrupting production at various oilfields.Expectations for increased exports from South Sudan also nudged prices lower.
Trading volumes were thin as many investors already closed books before the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market and increasing volatility, which helped exaggerate market moves.
Crude oil futures were higher during the Asian session on Thursday to start the New Year with exports from Libya a continued focus along with strife in South Sudan.
Crude oil nudged higher recovering some losses despite signs the Chinese economy lost some steam late last year.
Bumpy progress on resuming oil production in war-disrupted regions of Africa and the Middle East has been a recent factor in trading.
Crude oil inventories will release on Friday at 9.30pm as US market was closed on Wednesday. Expected inventory is -2.3M.
Technical Levels

 S 1 S 2 R 1 R 2
CRUDE 97.91 96.67 99.89 100.39
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7.00P.M Unemployment Claims 338K 334K STRONG
7.00P.M ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.3 56.8 STRONG
Unemployment Claims

Source Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release Jan 9, 2014
FF Notes This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders
Care		 Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
ISM Manufacturing PMI

Source Institute for Supply Management (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends;
Next Release Feb 3, 2014
FF Notes Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders
Care		 It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called Manufacturing ISM Report On Business;
Acro Expand The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

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Posted by Alex Gray

COMEX: Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD
Gold dropped lower overnight to open at 1203.50/1204.50. It briefly touched a high of 1208.00/1209.00 as the Euro strengthened against the Dollar. It then declined to a low of 1203.00/1204.00 following strong U.S. data that pointed to an increase in pending home sales and factory activity while global equities climbed to a six-year high. Quiet trading in the afternoon led the metal to close at 1204.00/1205.00. 
Gold is weaker today at 1204. The metal had been drifting higher the past week in a move that started at 1188 and ended Friday at 1218. We see key down side support at 1181 and topside resistance at 1222, which is the top of a bearish two-month channel. Big picture: the metal is closing out 2013 at the lower end of this year’s range of 1181 to 1795. The risk remains to the down side.
Gold settled down tracking Comex Gold which settled under $1,200 as a willingness to take on more risk and the prospect of a global recovery
Expectations that the U.S. economy will improve and the rest of the world’s growth will stabilise in 2014, have further undermined the case for holding bullion
Holdings on SPDR Gold Trust fell three tonnes on Friday to their lowest since Jan. 2009 at 801.2 tonnes.
Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in gold and silver in the week to Dec. 24, data from the CFTC showed on Monday. 
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1192 1181 1215 1226
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

SILVER
Silver followed gold lower overnight to open at 19.59/19.64. It touched a low of 19.55/19.60 shortly after the open and then climbed to a high of 19.74/19.79 before closing the session at 19.61/19.66.
Silver is lower today at 19.66. Silver had been moving higher in recent trading from 19.15 to 20.19. The price action of the past month has been overall sideways with key levels seen at 18.91 and 20.47. Silver has had a rough 12 months falling from January high of 32.46 to July low of 18.26.
The Gold Silver ratio has spiked higher today from 60.23 to 61.25. We see resistance at 61.86 from a declining trend line.
Silver down after investors shrugged off soft U.S. housing figures and sold on concerns years of support from the Federal Reserve
Some market participants believe the Fed will likely reduce its bond purchases by USD10 billion in each of its next seven meetings
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 50.90 tonnes to 9958.64 tonnes from 10009.54 tonnes.
Volumes remained light with year-end positioning and profit-taking driving flows. 
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.32 19.03 20.04 20.47
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.389 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.1%. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.372 a pound and USD3.391 a pound.
The March contract settled 0.4% lower on Friday to end at USD3.385 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.368 a pound, the low from December 26 and resistance at USD3.431 a pound, the high from December 24 and the strongest level since April 12.
Volumes were expected to remain light on Monday, with year-end positioning and profit-taking driving flows.
Copper prices have been well-supported in recent weeks amid indications the U.S. economic recovery is deepening. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand.
Copper futures were little changed near last week’s four-month high in subdued trade on Monday, as market players looked ahead to U.S. pending home sales data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.
Copper little changed as market players looked ahead to U.S. pending home sales data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.
Copper prices have been well-supported in recent weeks amid indications the U.S. economic recovery is deepening.
Copper production in the January-to-November period increased 6.5 percent to roughly 5.3 million tonnes, the INE added.
Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 367450mt that is down by -3500mt.
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.3720 3.3611 3.3928 3.4031
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude oil futures for February delivery traded at USD99.34 a barrel at time of writing rising 0.05%.
It earlier traded at a session high USD99.39 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD99.06 and resistance at USD100.75.
US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.01% to trade at USD80.16.
Elsewhere on the ICE, Brent oil for February delivery rose 0.03% to trade at USD111.27 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent oil and Crude oil contracts standing at USD11.93 a barrel.
Crude oil futures were higher during the Asian session on Tuesday.
Crude oil settled down after disappointing U.S. home sales figures sparked concerns that the U.S. economy continues to battle potholes on its road to recovery.
Support seen as data showed that U.S. total fuel demand hit a 26-month high in October while a key Libyan oil export port remained shut.
Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. crude is set for an annual gain of 8% in 2013, after falling about 7 per cent in 2012.
“OPEC oil ministers who claimed that there would not be any surpluses on the crude oil markets next year.
Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 98.80 98.32 100.09 100.90
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
Global Economic Data
Date: 31/12/2013
TIME :IST DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
7.30P.M S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 13.3% 13.4% MEDIUM
8.15P.M Chicago PMI 63.0 61.3 MEDIUM
8.30P.M CB Consumer Confidence 70.4 76.5 STRONG
S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
Source Standard & Poor's (latest release)
Measures Change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends;
Next Release Jan 28, 2014
FF Notes This is one of the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it's the primary calculation for this indicator;
Why Traders
Care		 It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
Acro Expand Standard & Poor's (S&P), Case-Shiller (CS), House Price Index (HPI);
Source Standard & Poor's (latest release)
Chicago PMI
Source
 MNI (latest release)
Measures Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month;
Next Release Jan 31, 2014
FF Notes Data is given to MNI subscribers 3 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders
Care		 It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via Survey of around 200 purchasing managers in Chicago which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called Chicago Business Barometer;
Acro Expand Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

CB Consumer Confidence
Source The Conference Board Inc. (latest release)
Measures Level of a composite index based on surveyed households;
Usual Effect Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month;
Next Release Jan 28, 2014
Why Traders
Care		 Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation;
Acro Expand The Conference Board (CB);

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Posted by Alex Gray

Commodity Technical Outlook: GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE

GOLD
Gold edged higher overnight to open at 1201.00/1202.00. It  dropped slightly to a low of 1200.00/1201.00 before climbing to a  high of 1205.50/1206.50 on low volumes ahead of Christmas as  positive U.S. data pointed to an increase in sales of durable goods  while the monthly home price index increased slightly. The metal  traded within range for the rest of the day before finally closing at  1204.00/1205.00.
Gold closed higher today at 1204, reversing yesterday’s losses. The  metal remains in a bearish trend, support is at the major low of  1180, with resistance at the high from Thursday, December 19th  around 1227. The last signal in MACD on the daily chart was a sell  signal on December 19th.
Gold rose as bearish traders continued to leave the market ahead of the year’s end and a weaker dollar burnished gold’s allure to foreign buyers.
Gold set for its biggest annual loss in three decades as investors switch to rallying equities on optimism about a global economic recovery.
SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings declined 0.19 percent to 804.22 tonnes on Thursday from 805.72 tonnes on Tuesday.

Technical Levels
S1 S2 R1 R2
GOLD 1208 1203 1217 1221
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER
Silver remained unchanged overnight to open at 19.40/19.45,  which was also the low of the day. Thereafter, it followed gold to a  high of 19.55/19.60 before concluding the day at 19.52/19.57.
Silver closed very slightly higher at 19.52, grinding out three days  of small gains, but all inside the range from December 19th. This is  not indicative of bullish price action, and we expect the metal to  retest the major low of 18.90, followed by a test of the 18.22 low  from June. Resistance is at the December 19th high around 19.92.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at current 61.74. Support is  at 61.06, the 38.2% retracement of the July-August downtrend.  Resistance is at 62.28, the 50% retracement level
Silver rose after data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell more-than-expected.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly a month, a hopeful sign for the labour market
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended December 14 rose to 2.923 million from 2.877 million in the preceding week.

Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
SILVER 19.82 19.71 20.04 20.27
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.375 a pound during U.S. morning trade, flat on the day. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.368 a pound and USD3.375 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.304 a pound, the low from December 24 and resistance at USD3.420 a pound, the high from December 24 and the strongest level since April 12.
The March contract surged to an eight-month high of USD3.420 a pound on Tuesday, before settling at USD3.374 a pound, up 2.01%.
Copper futures were little changed in subdued trade on Thursday, with volumes expected to remain light as holidays in many countries limit activity.
Copper rose on growing confidence about the global economy, year-end covering and the prospect of purchases from China’s state reserves.
Strong U.S. economic data and a bullish growth forecast for China, fuelled hopes about stronger demand for copper and other industrial metals.
Japan’s output of rolled copper product rose to 67,751 tonnes in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 9.6 percent from a year earlier.

Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
COPPER 3.4298 3.4101 3.4590 3.4690
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude oil futures for February delivery traded at USD99.39 a barrel at time of writing falling 0.16%.
It earlier traded at a session low USD99.38 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD98.53 and resistance at USD99.76.
US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.18% to trade at USD80.52.
Elsewhere on the ICE, Brent oil for February delivery fell 0.26% to trade at USD111.70 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent oil and Crude oil contracts standing at USD12.31 a barrel..
Crude oil futures were lower in Asian trading hours on Friday.
Crude oil gained boosted by demand for refined products after industry data earlier this week showed a steep decline in gasoline and distillate inventories.
Supply outages in Africa are also in focus and added some geopolitical risk premium to prices.
Today crude oil inventories: EXP: -1.9M PREV: -2.9M. Actual is at 9.30PM.

Technical Levels

 S1 S2 R1 R2
CRUDE 99.20 98.78 99.81 100.46
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data
TIME DATA PRV EXP IMPACT
9.30P.M Crude Oil Inventories -2.9m -1.9m MEDIUM
Source Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release Jan 3, 2014
FF Notes While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders
Care		 It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand Energy Information Administration (EIA);

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Posted by Alex Gray
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