GOLD
Gold
declined overnight to open at 1234.50/1235.50 after a budget agreement
reached by U.S. lawmakers was seen as a sign of early tapering of the
Fed’s monthly bond-buying program. The metal briefly touched a high of
1236.50/1237.50 before declining to an intra-day low of 1224.50/1225.50
following strong U.S. retail sales data while the dollar strengthened
despite an increase in U.S. initial jobless claims. The metal
consolidated later in the afternoon to conclude the session at
1225.00/1226.00.
Gold
closed lower for the second day today, closing at 1226. Bearish
momentum, which had been trending downward since early September, has
now bounced back higher, putting the downside into more immediate
focus. Resistance is at 1277, the 61.8% retracement of the June to
August uptrend. Support is at the recent low of 1210.
Gold fell as
expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would reduce its huge
stimulus programme after a provisional budget deal in Washington.
Imports into India have fallen sharply this year after the Indian government lifted import duty to 10 percent earlier this year.
This
year has seen heavy liquidation of ETF holdings, with the SPDR’s
holdings dropping by more than 500 tonnes to their lowest in nearly five
years.
SILVER
Silver
followed gold lower overnight to open at 19.75/19.80. It touched a
high of 19.78/19.83 and then quickly declining to a low of 19.42/19.47
prior to concluding the session at 19.45/19.50.
Silver had a very
bearish close, at 19.45. Resistance is at 20.85, the 61.8% retracement
of the June to August uptrend. Support lies at the recent low at 19.21.
The
gold-silver ratio traded higher, to current 62.87, capping six days of
losses. Support is at 61.06, the 38.2% retracement of the July–August
range.
Silver fell after better-than-expected U.S. retail sales
figures sparked market expectations for Fed to announce plans to taper
its USD85 billion in monthly asset purchases.
U.S. retail sales rose
solidly in November, another sign of a strengthening economy after last
week’s better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls and GDP data
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 44.92 tonnes to 10163.74 tonnes from 10208.66 tonnes.
COPPER
Copper
settled up 1.19% rose to the highest level in six weeks before
trimming gains to trade little changed as investors looked ahead to key
U.S. economic data later in the day to further gauge the strength of the
economy and the need for stimulus. Economic indicators from the US
turned out mixed Thursday, with retail sales beating forecast and
initial jobless claims reported worse than expectation. Anticipation for
a potential QE tapering in December continued to rise. Besides, as the
ECB said it might maintain easing policies for a longer period of time,
the euro fell back, helping with a $rebound and weighing commodities
down. LME copper prices rose initially Thursday but with the increase
blocked at $7,250/mt due to selling pressure, finally ending at
$7,220/mt.
The
mixed batch of U.S. economic data did little to alter expectations that
the Federal Reserve will start to scale back its stimulus program next
week.
Copper ended with gains as support seen from weakness in rupee and after data showed US retail sales beating forecast.
A
surplus in the global market for refined copper will widen by over 60
percent in 2014 as new mine supply outstrips reviving demand.
European Central Bank (ECB) said it might maintain easing policies for a longer period of time.
CRUDE
On
the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for
delivery in January traded at USD97.41 a barrel, down 0.10%, after
hitting an overnight session low of USD97.32 and a high of USD98.17.
The
commodity shrugged off U.S. House approval Thursday of a two-year
budget agreement drafted by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan
and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Patty Murray and Senate Majority
Leader Harry Reid indicated at a Thursday briefing that he expects the
Senate to approve the package next week.
On
Thursday, the Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. retail
sales rose 0.7% in November, beating market expectations for a 0.6%
increase. Core retail sales, which are stripped of automobiles, rose
0.4%, above forecasts for a 0.2% increase.
Crude oil prices eased
slightly in Asia on Friday in thin trade with the focus on whether the
Federal Reserve will soon taper stimulus tools.
Crude oil rose after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data boosted optimism over the health of the economy.
IEA said surging oil demand and faltering supplies mean oil prices face upside risks over the next few months.
Libyan Prime Minister Ali Zeidan said the government expected eastern tribes to reopen three oil ports over the weekend.
Technical Levels
|
SUPPORT 1 |
SUPPORT 2 |
RESISTANCE 1 |
RESISTANCE 2 |
| GOLD |
1216 |
1206 |
1245 |
1265 |
| SILVER |
19.11 |
18.82 |
19.88 |
20.55 |
| COPPER |
3.3115 |
3.3120 |
3.3420 |
3.3520 |
| CRUDE |
97.14 |
96.79 |
98.01 |
98.88 |
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
Global Economic Data
| DATE
|
TIME |
DATA |
PRV |
EXP |
IMPACT |
| 13.12.13
|
7.00P.M |
PPI m/m |
-0.2% |
0.0%
|
STRONG |
| 13.12.13
|
7.00P.M |
Core PPI m/m |
0.2% |
0.1%
|
MEDIUM |
PPI m/m
| Source |
Department of Labor (latest release) |
| Measures |
Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by
producers; |
| Usual Effect |
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency |
Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends; |
| Next Release |
Jan 15, 2014 |
| FF Notes |
Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the CPI
data because the reports are significantly correlated; |
Why Traders
Care |
It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers
charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually
passed on to the consumer; |
| Also Called |
Finished Goods PPI. Wholesale Prices; |
| Acro Expand |
Producer Price Index (PPI); |
Core PPI m/m
| Source |
Department of Labor (latest release) |
| Measures |
Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by
producers, excluding food and energy; |
| Usual Effect |
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency |
Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends; |
| Next Release |
Jan 15, 2014 |
| FF Notes |
Food and energy prices make up about 40% of overall PPI which
tends to mute the importance of the Core data; |
| Also Called |
Core Finished Goods PPI; |
| Acro Expand |
Producer Price Index (PPI); |
| Source |
Department of Labor (latest release) |
